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Edson Barboza
"Junior"
24-13-0
VS
2026-08-15
UFC 330
Lightweight
Esteban Ribovics
"El Gringo"
15-2-0
LOGISTIC (CORE) PREDICTION
Esteban Ribovics 'El Gringo'
71.0% CONFIDENCE
ACTUAL RESULT — MODEL WAS CORRECT
Esteban Ribovics 'El Gringo' won
KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:32
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
29.8% 70.2%
Esteban Ribovics
LightGBM
36.9% 63.1%
Esteban Ribovics
Logistic (Core) currently viewing
29.0% 71.0%
Esteban Ribovics
CatBoost
34.5% 65.5%
Esteban Ribovics
Ensemble
36.6% 63.4%
Esteban Ribovics
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Edson Barboza
Esteban Ribovics
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup
15%
Net striking dominance
Matchup
12%
Age
Edson Barboza
10%
Elo rating edge
Matchup
7%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Esteban Ribovics
6%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup
6%
Avg takedowns attempted
Esteban Ribovics
5%
Reach edge
Matchup
4%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup
4%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Edson Barboza
3%
Fights per year
Edson Barboza
2%
Strikes absorbed/min
Edson Barboza
2%
Age
Esteban Ribovics
2%
← pushes toward Edson Barboza pushes toward Esteban Ribovics →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Edson Barboza

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L KO
L KO
L DEC
L DEC
W DEC
Height: 180 cm
Weight: 155 lbs
Reach: 190 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Esteban Ribovics

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
L SUB
W DEC
L DEC
W DEC
Height: 178 cm
Weight: 155 lbs
Reach: 175 cm
Stance: Orthodox