Edson Barboza
"Junior"
24-13-0
VS
Esteban Ribovics
"El Gringo"
15-2-0
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
currently viewing
29.8%
70.2%
Esteban Ribovics
LightGBM
36.9%
63.1%
Esteban Ribovics
Logistic (Core)
29.0%
71.0%
Esteban Ribovics
CatBoost
34.5%
65.5%
Esteban Ribovics
Ensemble
36.6%
63.4%
Esteban Ribovics
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
53%
Decision
35%
KO / TKO
12%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 47%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Edson Barboza
Esteban Ribovics
15%
12%
10%
7%
6%
6%
5%
4%
4%
3%
3%
2%
2%
2%
← pushes toward Edson Barboza
pushes toward Esteban Ribovics →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Edson Barboza
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
14.0m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
KO
L
DEC
L
DEC
W
DEC
W
KO
Height:
180 cm
Weight:
155 lbs
Reach:
190 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Esteban Ribovics
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
11.0m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
SUB
W
DEC
L
DEC
W
DEC
W
KO
Height:
178 cm
Weight:
155 lbs
Reach:
175 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Edson Barboza
ADVANTAGE
Esteban Ribovics
Striking Accuracy
Strikes Landed/Min
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Striking Defense
Takedown Accuracy
Takedown Defense
Knockdowns/Fight
Avg Control Time (sec)
Strikes Per Round
Head Strike %
Body Strike %
Leg Strike %
Last 5 Win Rate
Last 5 Finish Rate