Edson Barboza
"Junior"
24-13-0
VS
2026-08-15
UFC 330
Lightweight
Esteban Ribovics
"El Gringo"
15-2-0
XGBOOST PREDICTION
Esteban Ribovics 'El Gringo'
70.2% CONFIDENCE
How It Ends
53%
Decision
35%
KO / TKO
12%
Submission
Decision53.1%
KO / TKO34.9%
Submission12.1%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 157.6%
Round 223.8%
Round 3+18.6%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 47% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Edson Barboza
Esteban Ribovics
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup +10.26
15%
Net striking dominance
Matchup -1.90
12%
Age
Edson Barboza 40.6 yrs
10%
Elo rating edge
Matchup 54
7%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Esteban Ribovics -4.68
6%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup +20
6%
Avg takedowns attempted
Esteban Ribovics 1.48
5%
Reach edge
Matchup +15.2 cm
4%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup -0.05
4%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup -8%
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Edson Barboza 1.58
3%
Fights per year
Edson Barboza 2.13
2%
Strikes absorbed/min
Edson Barboza 5.06
2%
Age
Esteban Ribovics 30.3 yrs
2%
← pushes toward Edson Barboza pushes toward Esteban Ribovics →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Edson Barboza

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
14.0m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L KO
L DEC
L DEC
W DEC
W KO
Height: 180 cm
Weight: 155 lbs
Reach: 190 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Esteban Ribovics

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
11.0m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L SUB
W DEC
L DEC
W DEC
W KO
Height: 178 cm
Weight: 155 lbs
Reach: 175 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Edson Barboza
ADVANTAGE
Esteban Ribovics
Striking Accuracy
46.6%
+4.5%
42.1%
Strikes Landed/Min
3.86
+1.94
5.80
Strikes Absorbed/Min
5.06
+0.04
5.10
Striking Defense
48.7%
+5.5%
54.2%
Takedown Accuracy
41.2%
+1.3%
39.9%
Takedown Defense
60.7%
+5.3%
66.0%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.29
+0.08
0.20
Avg Control Time (sec)
64.72
+0.48
64.24
Strikes Per Round
18.29
+6.83
25.12
Head Strike %
51.2%
+19.3%
70.5%
Body Strike %
31.1%
+13.3%
17.8%
Leg Strike %
17.7%
+6.0%
11.7%
Last 5 Win Rate
40.0%
+20.0%
60.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
20.0%
EVEN
20.0%