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Montel Jackson
"Quik"
15-3-0
VS
2026-09-26
UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos
Bantamweight
Ricky Simon
22-7-0
NO AGE · LIGHTGBM PREDICTION
Montel Jackson 'Quik'
71.1% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
65.8% 34.2%
Montel Jackson
LightGBM
69.2% 30.8%
Montel Jackson
Logistic (Core)
69.1% 30.9%
Montel Jackson
CatBoost
68.1% 31.9%
Montel Jackson
Ensemble
70.3% 29.7%
Montel Jackson
market-margin__xgb-full
74.0% 26.0%
Montel Jackson
No Age · CatBoost
70.2% 29.8%
Montel Jackson
No Age · Ensemble
74.1% 25.9%
Montel Jackson
No Age · LightGBM currently viewing
71.1% 28.9%
Montel Jackson
No Age · Logistic (Core)
72.6% 27.4%
Montel Jackson
No Age · XGBoost
73.3% 26.7%
Montel Jackson
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
65.2% 34.8%
Montel Jackson
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
69.9% 30.1%
Montel Jackson
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
71.4% 28.6%
Montel Jackson
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
67.4% 32.6%
Montel Jackson
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
71.1% 28.9%
Montel Jackson
With Odds · CatBoost
68.4% 31.6%
Montel Jackson
With Odds · Ensemble
70.0% 30.0%
Montel Jackson
With Odds · LightGBM
66.6% 33.4%
Montel Jackson
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
69.1% 30.9%
Montel Jackson
With Odds · XGBoost
65.8% 34.2%
Montel Jackson
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
60%
Decision
29%
KO / TKO
11%
Submission
Decision59.8%
KO / TKO28.9%
Submission11.4%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 145.9%
Round 229.0%
Round 3+25.1%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 40% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Montel Jackson
Ricky Simon
Net striking dominance
Matchup +1.86
15%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup -11
10%
Avg takedowns attempted
Ricky Simon 6.05
9%
Reach edge
Matchup +15.2 cm
8%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup -0.05
5%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Montel Jackson -0.40
4%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup 12%
4%
Fights per year
Montel Jackson 1.68
3%
Strikes absorbed/min
Montel Jackson 1.76
3%
Sub attempts/fight
Ricky Simon 0.21
3%
Head absorption rate
Ricky Simon 67%
3%
Control time conceded
Montel Jackson 92.63
3%
Career head strikes absorbed
Ricky Simon 580
3%
Strikes absorbed/min
Ricky Simon 4.12
2%
← pushes toward Montel Jackson pushes toward Ricky Simon →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Montel Jackson

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
40%
Avg Duration
9.8m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L DEC
L DEC
W DEC
W KO
W KO
Height: 178 cm
Weight: 135 lbs
Reach: 190 cm
Stance: Southpaw

Ricky Simon

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
12.8m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
D DEC
L DEC
W DEC
W KO
L DEC
Height: 168 cm
Weight: 135 lbs
Reach: 175 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Montel Jackson
ADVANTAGE
Ricky Simon
Striking Accuracy
47.7%
+6.7%
41.0%
Strikes Landed/Min
2.50
+0.51
3.01
Strikes Absorbed/Min
1.76
+2.37
4.12
Striking Defense
55.4%
+2.8%
58.2%
Takedown Accuracy
40.9%
+10.2%
30.6%
Takedown Defense
64.8%
+7.4%
72.3%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.54
+0.32
0.23
Avg Control Time (sec)
76.95
+7.69
84.64
Strikes Per Round
13.64
+1.75
15.40
Head Strike %
66.6%
+2.7%
69.2%
Body Strike %
19.2%
+1.8%
17.5%
Leg Strike %
14.2%
+0.9%
13.3%
Last 5 Win Rate
60.0%
+20.0%
40.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
40.0%
+20.0%
20.0%