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Luke Riley
12-0-0
VS
2026-07-11
UFC 329
Featherweight
Kai Kamaka
"The Fighting Hawaiian"
8-4-1
CATBOOST PREDICTION
Luke Riley
71.7% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
73.9% 26.1%
Luke Riley
LightGBM
71.9% 28.1%
Luke Riley
Logistic (Core)
73.3% 26.7%
Luke Riley
CatBoost currently viewing
71.7% 28.3%
Luke Riley
Ensemble
72.0% 28.0%
Luke Riley
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
50%
Decision
39%
KO / TKO
11%
Submission
Decision49.7%
KO / TKO39.0%
Submission11.4%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 144.4%
Round 239.1%
Round 3+16.5%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 50% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why CatBoost leans this way
Luke Riley
Kai Kamaka
Net striking dominance
Matchup
21%
Elo rating edge
Matchup
14%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Luke Riley
9%
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup
6%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup
5%
Age
Luke Riley
5%
Avg takedowns attempted
Luke Riley
4%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup
3%
Age
Kai Kamaka
3%
Past prime
Kai Kamaka
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Kai Kamaka
3%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Kai Kamaka
2%
Distance strike defense
Kai Kamaka
2%
Fights per year
Luke Riley
2%
← pushes toward Luke Riley pushes toward Kai Kamaka →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Luke Riley

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
W DEC
W KO
Height: 175 cm
Weight: 145 lbs
Reach: 175 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Kai Kamaka

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L KO
W DEC
D DEC
L DEC
L KO
Height: 170 cm
Weight: 145 lbs
Reach: 175 cm
Stance: Orthodox