Luke Riley
12-0-0
VS
Kai Kamaka
"The Fighting Hawaiian"
8-4-1
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
73.9%
26.1%
Luke Riley
LightGBM
currently viewing
71.9%
28.1%
Luke Riley
Logistic (Core)
73.3%
26.7%
Luke Riley
CatBoost
71.7%
28.3%
Luke Riley
Ensemble
72.0%
28.0%
Luke Riley
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
50%
Decision
39%
KO / TKO
11%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 50%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Luke Riley
Kai Kamaka
15%
12%
9%
6%
5%
5%
5%
4%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
2%
← pushes toward Luke Riley
pushes toward Kai Kamaka →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Luke Riley
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
KO
W
DEC
W
KO
Height:
175 cm
Weight:
145 lbs
Reach:
175 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Kai Kamaka
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
KO
W
DEC
D
DEC
L
DEC
L
KO
Height:
170 cm
Weight:
145 lbs
Reach:
175 cm
Stance:
Orthodox