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Yair Rodriguez
"El Pantera"
21-6-0
VS
2026-09-12
UFC Fight Night: Elliott vs. Chairez
Featherweight
Jean Silva
"Lord"
16-3-0
LOGISTIC (CORE) PREDICTION
Yair Rodriguez 'El Pantera'
54.2% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
40.1% 59.9%
Jean Silva
LightGBM
42.7% 57.3%
Jean Silva
Logistic (Core) currently viewing
54.2% 45.8%
Yair Rodriguez
CatBoost
48.9% 51.1%
Jean Silva
Ensemble
39.5% 60.5%
Jean Silva
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
51%
Decision
32%
KO / TKO
17%
Submission
Decision51.0%
KO / TKO32.3%
Submission16.7%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 149.8%
Round 233.0%
Round 3+17.2%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 49% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Yair Rodriguez
Jean Silva
Net striking dominance
Matchup +0.78
16%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup +8
7%
Age
Yair Rodriguez 33.9 yrs
6%
Avg takedowns attempted
Jean Silva 2.05
5%
Fights per year
Yair Rodriguez 1.54
5%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup -0.06
5%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Yair Rodriguez -0.45
5%
Avg takedowns attempted
Yair Rodriguez 2.20
4%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup -9%
4%
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup +4.22
4%
Finishing threat edge
Matchup -0.15
3%
Age
Jean Silva 29.7 yrs
3%
Avg control time
Jean Silva 51.03
3%
Elo rating edge
Matchup 17
3%
← pushes toward Yair Rodriguez pushes toward Jean Silva →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Yair Rodriguez

Win Streak
1
Finish Rate
40%
Avg Duration
10.8m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W DEC
L SUB
L KO
W SUB
W KO
Height: 180 cm
Weight: 145 lbs
Reach: 180 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Jean Silva

Win Streak
1
Finish Rate
40%
Avg Duration
9.9m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W DEC
L KO
W SUB
W KO
W KO
Height: 170 cm
Weight: 145 lbs
Reach: 175 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Yair Rodriguez
ADVANTAGE
Jean Silva
Striking Accuracy
48.7%
+1.3%
50.0%
Strikes Landed/Min
4.16
+0.32
3.83
Strikes Absorbed/Min
3.36
+0.45
3.81
Striking Defense
52.1%
+1.0%
53.1%
Takedown Accuracy
36.7%
+10.4%
47.1%
Takedown Defense
59.7%
+11.3%
71.0%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.33
+0.12
0.45
Avg Control Time (sec)
72.27
+21.24
51.03
Strikes Per Round
19.45
+1.02
18.43
Head Strike %
58.9%
+4.0%
62.9%
Body Strike %
21.0%
+3.7%
24.7%
Leg Strike %
20.2%
+7.8%
12.4%
Last 5 Win Rate
60.0%
+20.0%
80.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
40.0%
EVEN
40.0%