Mateusz Gamrot
"Gamer"
25-4-0
VS
2026-08-08
UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld
Lightweight
Quillan Salkilld
10-1-0
XGBOOST PREDICTION
Quillan Salkilld
51.6% CONFIDENCE
How It Ends
41%
Decision
34%
KO / TKO
25%
Submission
Decision40.7%
KO / TKO34.4%
Submission24.9%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 145.5%
Round 241.5%
Round 3+13.0%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 59% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Mateusz Gamrot
Quillan Salkilld
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup
11%
Avg takedowns attempted
Mateusz Gamrot
11%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup
9%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Quillan Salkilld
8%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Mateusz Gamrot
8%
Net striking dominance
Matchup
7%
Avg takedowns attempted
Quillan Salkilld
6%
Age
Mateusz Gamrot
5%
Head absorption rate
Mateusz Gamrot
4%
Last 2 avg fight time
Quillan Salkilld
3%
Age
Quillan Salkilld
3%
Distance strike defense
Mateusz Gamrot
2%
Finishing threat edge
Matchup
2%
Strikes absorbed/min
Mateusz Gamrot
2%
← pushes toward Mateusz Gamrot pushes toward Quillan Salkilld →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Mateusz Gamrot

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L SUB
W SUB
L SUB
W DEC
L DEC
Height: 178 cm
Weight: 155 lbs
Reach: 178 cm
Stance: Southpaw

Quillan Salkilld

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W SUB
W KO
W SUB
W KO
W DEC
Height: 183 cm
Weight: 155 lbs
Reach: 190 cm
Stance: Orthodox