Serghei Spivac
"Polar Bear"
17-6-0
VS
Vitor Petrino
13-2-0
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
38.5%
61.5%
Vitor Petrino
LightGBM
38.7%
61.3%
Vitor Petrino
Logistic (Core)
currently viewing
36.8%
63.2%
Vitor Petrino
CatBoost
41.0%
59.0%
Vitor Petrino
Ensemble
35.4%
64.6%
Vitor Petrino
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
47%
Decision
36%
KO / TKO
18%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 53%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Serghei Spivac
Vitor Petrino
18%
9%
9%
6%
5%
4%
4%
4%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
2%
← pushes toward Serghei Spivac
pushes toward Vitor Petrino →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Serghei Spivac
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
DEC
W
DEC
L
DEC
L
KO
W
SUB
Height:
190 cm
Weight:
260 lbs
Reach:
198 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Vitor Petrino
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
DEC
W
DEC
W
KO
W
SUB
L
KO
Height:
188 cm
Weight:
265 lbs
Reach:
196 cm
Stance:
Orthodox