Serghei Spivac
"Polar Bear"
17-6-0
VS
Vitor Petrino
13-2-0
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
currently viewing
36.7%
63.3%
Vitor Petrino
LightGBM
37.2%
62.8%
Vitor Petrino
Logistic (Core)
36.4%
63.6%
Vitor Petrino
CatBoost
40.1%
59.9%
Vitor Petrino
Ensemble
35.1%
64.9%
Vitor Petrino
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
49%
Decision
34%
KO / TKO
17%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 51%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Serghei Spivac
Vitor Petrino
19%
10%
9%
7%
4%
4%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
2%
← pushes toward Serghei Spivac
pushes toward Vitor Petrino →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Serghei Spivac
Win Streak
1
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
9.1m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
DEC
L
DEC
L
KO
W
SUB
L
KO
Height:
190 cm
Weight:
260 lbs
Reach:
198 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Vitor Petrino
Win Streak
3
Finish Rate
40%
Avg Duration
9.1m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
DEC
W
KO
W
SUB
L
KO
L
SUB
Height:
188 cm
Weight:
265 lbs
Reach:
196 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Serghei Spivac
ADVANTAGE
Vitor Petrino
Striking Accuracy
Strikes Landed/Min
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Striking Defense
Takedown Accuracy
Takedown Defense
Knockdowns/Fight
Avg Control Time (sec)
Strikes Per Round
Head Strike %
Body Strike %
Leg Strike %
Last 5 Win Rate
Last 5 Finish Rate