Morgan Charriere
"The Last Pirate"
21-11-1
VS
Felipe Lima
"Jungle Boy"
14-2-0
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
29.2%
70.8%
Felipe Lima
LightGBM
32.4%
67.6%
Felipe Lima
Logistic (Core)
41.1%
58.9%
Felipe Lima
CatBoost
35.6%
64.4%
Felipe Lima
Ensemble
currently viewing
31.4%
68.6%
Felipe Lima
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
52%
Decision
29%
KO / TKO
18%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 48%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Morgan Charriere
Felipe Lima
11%
11%
9%
7%
6%
5%
5%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
2%
← pushes toward Morgan Charriere
pushes toward Felipe Lima →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Morgan Charriere
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
40%
Avg Duration
9.4m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
KO
W
KO
L
DEC
W
KO
L
DEC
Height:
173 cm
Weight:
145 lbs
Reach:
175 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Felipe Lima
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
33%
Avg Duration
13.8m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
DEC
W
DEC
W
SUB
Height:
168 cm
Weight:
135 lbs
Reach:
173 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Morgan Charriere
ADVANTAGE
Felipe Lima
Striking Accuracy
Strikes Landed/Min
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Striking Defense
Takedown Accuracy
Takedown Defense
Knockdowns/Fight
Avg Control Time (sec)
Strikes Per Round
Head Strike %
Body Strike %
Leg Strike %
Last 5 Win Rate
Last 5 Finish Rate