Morgan Charriere
"The Last Pirate"
21-11-1
VS
Felipe Lima
"Jungle Boy"
14-2-0
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
31.0%
69.0%
Felipe Lima
LightGBM
32.0%
68.0%
Felipe Lima
Logistic (Core)
currently viewing
39.7%
60.3%
Felipe Lima
CatBoost
35.3%
64.7%
Felipe Lima
Ensemble
32.8%
67.2%
Felipe Lima
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
38.7%
61.3%
Felipe Lima
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
34.2%
65.8%
Felipe Lima
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
35.8%
64.2%
Felipe Lima
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
40.6%
59.4%
Felipe Lima
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
33.2%
66.8%
Felipe Lima
With Odds · CatBoost
30.2%
69.8%
Felipe Lima
With Odds · Ensemble
27.3%
72.7%
Felipe Lima
With Odds · LightGBM
25.9%
74.1%
Felipe Lima
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
39.7%
60.3%
Felipe Lima
With Odds · XGBoost
26.3%
73.7%
Felipe Lima
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
54%
Decision
29%
KO / TKO
17%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 46%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Morgan Charriere
Felipe Lima
13%
13%
7%
7%
6%
5%
4%
4%
3%
3%
3%
2%
2%
2%
← pushes toward Morgan Charriere
pushes toward Felipe Lima →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Morgan Charriere
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
DEC
L
KO
W
KO
L
DEC
W
KO
Height:
173 cm
Weight:
145 lbs
Reach:
175 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Felipe Lima
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
DEC
L
DEC
W
DEC
W
SUB
Height:
168 cm
Weight:
135 lbs
Reach:
173 cm
Stance:
Orthodox