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Damian Pinas
"The Baba Yaga"
8-1-0
VS
2026-07-11
UFC 329
Middleweight
Cesar Almeida
"Cesinha"
7-1-0
CATBOOST PREDICTION
Damian Pinas 'The Baba Yaga'
65.9% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
69.0% 31.0%
Damian Pinas
LightGBM
64.4% 35.6%
Damian Pinas
Logistic (Core)
75.1% 24.9%
Damian Pinas
CatBoost currently viewing
65.9% 34.1%
Damian Pinas
Ensemble
71.3% 28.7%
Damian Pinas
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
28%
Decision
61%
KO / TKO
11%
Submission
Decision27.5%
KO / TKO61.4%
Submission11.1%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 151.2%
Round 232.9%
Round 3+15.9%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 72% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why CatBoost leans this way
Damian Pinas
Cesar Almeida
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup
24%
Age
Cesar Almeida
11%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup
9%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Cesar Almeida
5%
Avg takedowns attempted
Damian Pinas
5%
Age
Damian Pinas
5%
Strikes absorbed/min
Cesar Almeida
4%
Avg takedowns attempted
Cesar Almeida
4%
Reach edge
Matchup
3%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup
3%
Net striking dominance
Matchup
3%
Past prime
Cesar Almeida
3%
Distance strike defense
Cesar Almeida
2%
Fights per year
Damian Pinas
2%
← pushes toward Damian Pinas pushes toward Cesar Almeida →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Damian Pinas

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
W KO
Height: 185 cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: 201 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Cesar Almeida

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L KO
L DEC
W KO
W DEC
L DEC
Height: 185 cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: 188 cm
Stance: Orthodox