Damian Pinas
"The Baba Yaga"
8-1-0
VS
Cesar Almeida
"Cesinha"
7-1-0
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
69.0%
31.0%
Damian Pinas
LightGBM
currently viewing
64.4%
35.6%
Damian Pinas
Logistic (Core)
75.1%
24.9%
Damian Pinas
CatBoost
65.9%
34.1%
Damian Pinas
Ensemble
71.3%
28.7%
Damian Pinas
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
28%
Decision
61%
KO / TKO
11%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 72%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Damian Pinas
Cesar Almeida
21%
10%
9%
5%
5%
5%
5%
4%
4%
3%
3%
2%
2%
2%
← pushes toward Damian Pinas
pushes toward Cesar Almeida →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Damian Pinas
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
KO
W
KO
Height:
185 cm
Weight:
185 lbs
Reach:
201 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Cesar Almeida
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
KO
L
DEC
W
KO
W
DEC
L
DEC
Height:
185 cm
Weight:
185 lbs
Reach:
188 cm
Stance:
Orthodox