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Caio Borralho
"The Natural"
17-2-0
VS
2026-11-14
UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit
Middleweight
Yousri Belgaroui
9-3-0
NO AGE · LIGHTGBM PREDICTION
Yousri Belgaroui
59.9% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
45.6% 54.4%
Yousri Belgaroui
LightGBM
48.1% 51.9%
Yousri Belgaroui
Logistic (Core)
50.3% 49.7%
Caio Borralho
CatBoost
41.7% 58.3%
Yousri Belgaroui
Ensemble
44.9% 55.1%
Yousri Belgaroui
No Age · CatBoost
39.8% 60.2%
Yousri Belgaroui
No Age · Ensemble
37.2% 62.8%
Yousri Belgaroui
No Age · LightGBM currently viewing
40.1% 59.9%
Yousri Belgaroui
No Age · Logistic (Core)
41.8% 58.2%
Yousri Belgaroui
No Age · XGBoost
42.0% 58.0%
Yousri Belgaroui
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
41.2% 58.8%
Yousri Belgaroui
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
42.0% 58.0%
Yousri Belgaroui
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
40.7% 59.3%
Yousri Belgaroui
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
51.3% 48.7%
Caio Borralho
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
50.7% 49.3%
Caio Borralho
With Odds · CatBoost
45.2% 54.8%
Yousri Belgaroui
With Odds · Ensemble
44.6% 55.4%
Yousri Belgaroui
With Odds · LightGBM
49.2% 50.8%
Yousri Belgaroui
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
50.3% 49.7%
Caio Borralho
With Odds · XGBoost
45.9% 54.1%
Yousri Belgaroui
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
52%
Decision
36%
KO / TKO
12%
Submission
Decision51.7%
KO / TKO36.1%
Submission12.2%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 149.9%
Round 230.3%
Round 3+19.8%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 48% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Caio Borralho
Yousri Belgaroui
Net striking dominance
Matchup -1.78
18%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup +7
11%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Caio Borralho -0.97
9%
Elo rating edge
Matchup 35
8%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Yousri Belgaroui +0.71
7%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup 0.03
5%
Strikes absorbed/min
Yousri Belgaroui 2.10
3%
Finishing threat edge
Matchup -0.37
3%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup -6%
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Caio Borralho 2.49
3%
Body strikes absorbed per min
Yousri Belgaroui 0.33
3%
Fights per year
Yousri Belgaroui 3.33
2%
Avg takedowns attempted
Yousri Belgaroui 1.62
2%
KO power vs chin mismatch
Matchup -0.04
2%
← pushes toward Caio Borralho pushes toward Yousri Belgaroui →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Caio Borralho

Win Streak
1
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
17.4m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W DEC
L DEC
W DEC
W KO
W DEC
Height: 185 cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: 190 cm
Stance: Southpaw

Yousri Belgaroui

Win Streak
3
Finish Rate
100%
Avg Duration
9.7m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
W KO
W KO
Height: 198 cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: 201 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Caio Borralho
ADVANTAGE
Yousri Belgaroui
Striking Accuracy
51.3%
+6.1%
57.4%
Strikes Landed/Min
3.36
+2.18
5.53
Strikes Absorbed/Min
2.89
+0.79
2.10
Striking Defense
58.4%
+4.0%
62.3%
Takedown Accuracy
36.6%
+4.3%
40.9%
Takedown Defense
69.2%
+9.6%
59.6%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.29
+0.31
0.60
Avg Control Time (sec)
81.32
+16.59
64.72
Strikes Per Round
16.25
+6.55
22.80
Head Strike %
63.6%
+3.6%
59.9%
Body Strike %
19.1%
+3.7%
22.8%
Leg Strike %
17.3%
+0.1%
17.2%
Last 5 Win Rate
80.0%
+20.0%
100.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
20.0%
+80.0%
100.0%