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Marvin Vettori
"The Italian Dream"
19-9-1
VS
2026-10-03
UFC 332
Middleweight
Ismail Naurdiev
25-8-0
RECENCY-HEAVY · LIGHTGBM PREDICTION
Ismail Naurdiev
58.4% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
41.1% 58.9%
Ismail Naurdiev
LightGBM
39.9% 60.1%
Ismail Naurdiev
Logistic (Core)
43.0% 57.0%
Ismail Naurdiev
CatBoost
39.5% 60.5%
Ismail Naurdiev
Ensemble
38.9% 61.1%
Ismail Naurdiev
No Age · CatBoost
46.4% 53.6%
Ismail Naurdiev
No Age · Ensemble
42.4% 57.6%
Ismail Naurdiev
No Age · LightGBM
38.7% 61.3%
Ismail Naurdiev
No Age · Logistic (Core)
47.4% 52.6%
Ismail Naurdiev
No Age · XGBoost
40.7% 59.3%
Ismail Naurdiev
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
44.9% 55.1%
Ismail Naurdiev
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
43.0% 57.0%
Ismail Naurdiev
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM currently viewing
41.6% 58.4%
Ismail Naurdiev
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
45.8% 54.2%
Ismail Naurdiev
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
39.6% 60.4%
Ismail Naurdiev
With Odds · CatBoost
44.3% 55.7%
Ismail Naurdiev
With Odds · Ensemble
44.8% 55.2%
Ismail Naurdiev
With Odds · LightGBM
46.2% 53.8%
Ismail Naurdiev
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
43.0% 57.0%
Ismail Naurdiev
With Odds · XGBoost
47.8% 52.2%
Ismail Naurdiev
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
59%
Decision
28%
KO / TKO
13%
Submission
Decision59.4%
KO / TKO27.6%
Submission13.0%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 144.5%
Round 233.8%
Round 3+21.7%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 41% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Marvin Vettori
Ismail Naurdiev
Net striking dominance
Matchup -1.37
16%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Ismail Naurdiev +0.76
9%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup -4
8%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Marvin Vettori -0.46
7%
Strikes absorbed/min
Marvin Vettori 5.16
5%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup -0.06
5%
Elo rating edge
Matchup 24
4%
Avg takedowns attempted
Marvin Vettori 2.71
4%
Age
Marvin Vettori 33.0 yrs
4%
Control time conceded
Marvin Vettori 53.96
3%
Body strikes absorbed per min
Ismail Naurdiev 0.35
3%
Age
Ismail Naurdiev 30.1 yrs
3%
Finishing threat edge
Matchup -0.16
3%
Distance strike defense
Marvin Vettori 55%
3%
← pushes toward Marvin Vettori pushes toward Ismail Naurdiev →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Marvin Vettori

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
19.0m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L DEC
L DEC
L DEC
L DEC
W DEC
Height: 183 cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: 188 cm
Stance: Southpaw

Ismail Naurdiev

Win Streak
1
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
12.3m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
L DEC
W DEC
L DEC
W DEC
Height: 178 cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: 188 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Marvin Vettori
ADVANTAGE
Ismail Naurdiev
Striking Accuracy
46.5%
+2.5%
49.0%
Strikes Landed/Min
4.90
+1.38
3.51
Strikes Absorbed/Min
5.16
+2.75
2.41
Striking Defense
53.2%
+5.3%
58.4%
Takedown Accuracy
38.3%
+3.7%
34.6%
Takedown Defense
63.0%
+5.9%
69.0%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.12
+0.16
0.28
Avg Control Time (sec)
74.17
+4.11
78.28
Strikes Per Round
22.30
+5.85
16.45
Head Strike %
74.1%
+12.9%
61.2%
Body Strike %
11.3%
+12.4%
23.7%
Leg Strike %
14.6%
+0.5%
15.0%
Last 5 Win Rate
20.0%
+40.0%
60.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
0.0%
+20.0%
20.0%