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Marvin Vettori
"The Italian Dream"
19-9-1
VS
2026-10-03
UFC 332
Middleweight
Ismail Naurdiev
25-8-0
WITH ODDS · XGBOOST PREDICTION
Ismail Naurdiev
52.2% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
41.1% 58.9%
Ismail Naurdiev
LightGBM
39.9% 60.1%
Ismail Naurdiev
Logistic (Core)
43.0% 57.0%
Ismail Naurdiev
CatBoost
39.5% 60.5%
Ismail Naurdiev
Ensemble
38.9% 61.1%
Ismail Naurdiev
No Age · CatBoost
46.4% 53.6%
Ismail Naurdiev
No Age · Ensemble
42.4% 57.6%
Ismail Naurdiev
No Age · LightGBM
38.7% 61.3%
Ismail Naurdiev
No Age · Logistic (Core)
47.4% 52.6%
Ismail Naurdiev
No Age · XGBoost
40.7% 59.3%
Ismail Naurdiev
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
44.9% 55.1%
Ismail Naurdiev
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
43.0% 57.0%
Ismail Naurdiev
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
41.6% 58.4%
Ismail Naurdiev
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
45.8% 54.2%
Ismail Naurdiev
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
39.6% 60.4%
Ismail Naurdiev
With Odds · CatBoost
44.3% 55.7%
Ismail Naurdiev
With Odds · Ensemble
44.8% 55.2%
Ismail Naurdiev
With Odds · LightGBM
46.2% 53.8%
Ismail Naurdiev
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
43.0% 57.0%
Ismail Naurdiev
With Odds · XGBoost currently viewing
47.8% 52.2%
Ismail Naurdiev
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
59%
Decision
28%
KO / TKO
13%
Submission
Decision59.4%
KO / TKO27.6%
Submission13.0%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 144.5%
Round 233.8%
Round 3+21.7%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 41% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Marvin Vettori
Ismail Naurdiev
Net striking dominance
Matchup -1.37
10%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Ismail Naurdiev +0.76
6%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Marvin Vettori -0.46
6%
Age
Marvin Vettori 33.0 yrs
5%
Sub attempts/fight
Ismail Naurdiev 0.23
5%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup -4
5%
Strikes absorbed/min
Marvin Vettori 5.16
5%
Body strikes absorbed per min
Ismail Naurdiev 0.35
4%
Fights per year
Ismail Naurdiev 1.04
4%
Head-strike accuracy
Marvin Vettori 41%
4%
Market latest prob diff
Matchup
3%
Fights per year
Marvin Vettori 1.94
3%
Striking defense
Ismail Naurdiev 58%
3%
Body strikes absorbed per min
Marvin Vettori 0.86
3%
← pushes toward Marvin Vettori pushes toward Ismail Naurdiev →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Marvin Vettori

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
19.0m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L DEC
L DEC
L DEC
L DEC
W DEC
Height: 183 cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: 188 cm
Stance: Southpaw

Ismail Naurdiev

Win Streak
1
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
12.3m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
L DEC
W DEC
L DEC
W DEC
Height: 178 cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: 188 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Marvin Vettori
ADVANTAGE
Ismail Naurdiev
Striking Accuracy
46.5%
+2.5%
49.0%
Strikes Landed/Min
4.90
+1.38
3.51
Strikes Absorbed/Min
5.16
+2.75
2.41
Striking Defense
53.2%
+5.3%
58.4%
Takedown Accuracy
38.3%
+3.7%
34.6%
Takedown Defense
63.0%
+5.9%
69.0%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.12
+0.16
0.28
Avg Control Time (sec)
74.17
+4.11
78.28
Strikes Per Round
22.30
+5.85
16.45
Head Strike %
74.1%
+12.9%
61.2%
Body Strike %
11.3%
+12.4%
23.7%
Leg Strike %
14.6%
+0.5%
15.0%
Last 5 Win Rate
20.0%
+40.0%
60.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
0.0%
+20.0%
20.0%