Steve Erceg
"Astroboy"
13-4-0
VS
2026-07-25
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Rountree Jr
Flyweight
Ramazan Temirov
"Temurlan"
19-3-0
LOGISTIC (CORE) PREDICTION
Steve Erceg 'Astroboy'
54.6% CONFIDENCE
How It Ends
58%
Decision
31%
KO / TKO
11%
Submission
Decision58.0%
KO / TKO30.6%
Submission11.4%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 144.0%
Round 233.9%
Round 3+22.1%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 42% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Steve Erceg
Ramazan Temirov
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Steve Erceg
12%
Net striking dominance
Matchup
9%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup
9%
Avg takedowns attempted
Steve Erceg
6%
Distance strike defense
Steve Erceg
5%
Age
Ramazan Temirov
4%
Reach edge
Matchup
4%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Ramazan Temirov
4%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup
4%
Age
Steve Erceg
4%
Head absorption rate
Steve Erceg
3%
Head absorption rate
Ramazan Temirov
3%
Fights per year
Steve Erceg
3%
Distance strike defense
Ramazan Temirov
3%
← pushes toward Steve Erceg pushes toward Ramazan Temirov →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Steve Erceg

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L KO
W DEC
W DEC
L DEC
L KO
Height: 173 cm
Weight: 125 lbs
Reach: 173 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Ramazan Temirov

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
W DEC
W KO
Height: 163 cm
Weight: 125 lbs
Reach: 160 cm
Stance: Orthodox