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Jim Miller
"A-10"
38-19-0
VS
2026-11-14
UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit
Lightweight
Terrance McKinney
"T. Wrecks"
17-7-0
MAIN + MARKET PREDICTION
Terrance McKinney 'T. Wrecks'
65.9% CONFIDENCE
Fight Insights
63%
Terrance McKinney
Fighters who are 5+ years younger than their opponent have won 63% of their UFC fights (1773-1054)
Terrance McKinney is 32, Jim Miller is 43
59%
Jim Miller
Fighters who are coming off a win facing an opponent who has been knocked out 2+ times in the UFC have won 59% of their UFC fights (700-477)
Terrance McKinney: KO'd 4 times
57%
Terrance McKinney
Fighters who average 2.8+ takedowns per 15 minutes have won 57% of their UFC fights (1170-882)
Terrance McKinney: 3.0 takedowns/15 min
44%
Terrance McKinney
Fighters who absorb 4.1+ significant strikes per minute have won 44% of their UFC fights (930-1190)
Terrance McKinney: absorbs 4.8/min
53%
Matchup
Fights where a fighter who scores 0.89+ knockdowns per 15 minutes faces an opponent who has been finished 2+ times in the UFC end in a KO/TKO 53% of the time (vs 33% of all UFC fights, n=514)
Real UFC history since 2006, using each fighter's record, form and stats as they stood before every past fight. Only patterns that hold up statistically (corrected for testing many ideas at once) and point the same way in both halves of history are shown — these describe the past, they are not predictions.
What Every Model Says
Main + Market currently viewing
34.1% 65.9%
Terrance McKinney
XGBoost
34.1% 65.9%
Terrance McKinney
LightGBM
39.7% 60.3%
Terrance McKinney
Logistic (Core)
28.6% 71.4%
Terrance McKinney
CatBoost
34.1% 65.9%
Terrance McKinney
Ensemble
31.1% 68.9%
Terrance McKinney
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
38.2% 61.8%
Terrance McKinney
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
32.9% 67.1%
Terrance McKinney
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
35.1% 64.9%
Terrance McKinney
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
31.8% 68.2%
Terrance McKinney
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
31.1% 68.9%
Terrance McKinney
With Odds · CatBoost
44.2% 55.8%
Terrance McKinney
With Odds · Ensemble
37.8% 62.2%
Terrance McKinney
With Odds · LightGBM
37.2% 62.8%
Terrance McKinney
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
28.6% 71.4%
Terrance McKinney
With Odds · XGBoost
37.4% 62.6%
Terrance McKinney
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
34%
Decision
37%
KO / TKO
30%
Submission
Decision33.7%
KO / TKO36.7%
Submission29.6%
How long it lasts 3-round fight
30%
Goes the distance
fair +230
70%
Ends in a finish
fair -230
Rounds lineOverUnder
0.5 68% -214 32% +214
1.5 45% +124 55% -124
2.5 30% +230 70% -230
When it ends
Round 154%
Round 213%
Round 33%
Goes the distance30%
"Over 1.5" means the fight lasts past the middle of round 2, the way sportsbooks settle it. Fair odds are the break-even price with no vig, so compare them with a book's line. On unseen fights this model beat the plain base rate by about 4% (log loss; 51% of 3-round fights go the distance), so treat it as a tilt away from the base rate, not a certainty.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Jim Miller
Terrance McKinney
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup +11.04
13%
Net striking dominance
Matchup -2.05
12%
Age
Jim Miller 43.2 yrs
8%
Elo rating edge
Matchup 73
8%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup +33
8%
Avg takedowns attempted
Terrance McKinney 1.57
4%
Total control time conceded
Terrance McKinney 54.57
4%
Last 2 avg fight time
Terrance McKinney 161.50
3%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup -22%
3%
Control time conceded
Terrance McKinney 60.26
3%
Fights per year
Jim Miller 2.68
3%
Finish loss rate
Terrance McKinney 40%
3%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup -0.03
2%
Avg takedowns attempted
Jim Miller 1.64
2%
← pushes toward Jim Miller pushes toward Terrance McKinney →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Jim Miller

Win Streak
1
Finish Rate
60%
Avg Duration
9.9m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W SUB
L DEC
W SUB
L DEC
W SUB
Height: 173 cm
Weight: 155 lbs
Reach: 180 cm
Stance: Southpaw

Terrance McKinney

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
60%
Avg Duration
2.2m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L KO
W KO
L SUB
W SUB
W KO
Height: 178 cm
Weight: 155 lbs
Reach: 185 cm
Stance: Switch
Head-to-Head Stats
Jim Miller
ADVANTAGE
Terrance McKinney
Striking Accuracy
45.4%
+6.8%
52.2%
Strikes Landed/Min
2.79
+1.03
3.82
Strikes Absorbed/Min
3.86
+1.02
2.84
Striking Defense
51.8%
+4.1%
47.7%
Takedown Accuracy
44.2%
+1.7%
42.5%
Takedown Defense
52.9%
+10.2%
63.1%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.16
+0.02
0.15
Avg Control Time (sec)
70.73
+3.81
74.54
Strikes Per Round
14.35
+3.50
17.84
Head Strike %
60.5%
+14.6%
75.1%
Body Strike %
19.6%
+3.2%
16.4%
Leg Strike %
19.9%
+11.4%
8.5%
Last 5 Win Rate
60.0%
EVEN
60.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
60.0%
EVEN
60.0%