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Marlon Vera
"Chito"
23-11-1
VS
2026-09-19
UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2
Bantamweight
Charles Jourdain
"Air"
17-8-1
LIGHTGBM PREDICTION
Charles Jourdain 'Air'
53.7% CONFIDENCE
ACTUAL RESULT — MODEL WAS WRONG
Marlon Vera 'Chito' won
KO/TKO · Round 3 · 2:02
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
48.4% 51.6%
Charles Jourdain
LightGBM currently viewing
46.3% 53.7%
Charles Jourdain
Logistic (Core)
35.2% 64.8%
Charles Jourdain
CatBoost
48.7% 51.3%
Charles Jourdain
Ensemble
46.9% 53.1%
Charles Jourdain
market-margin__xgb-full
35.1% 64.9%
Charles Jourdain
No Age · CatBoost
48.5% 51.5%
Charles Jourdain
No Age · Ensemble
46.7% 53.3%
Charles Jourdain
No Age · LightGBM
46.6% 53.4%
Charles Jourdain
No Age · Logistic (Core)
34.4% 65.6%
Charles Jourdain
No Age · XGBoost
47.0% 53.0%
Charles Jourdain
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
47.0% 53.0%
Charles Jourdain
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
45.6% 54.4%
Charles Jourdain
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
44.7% 55.3%
Charles Jourdain
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
37.4% 62.6%
Charles Jourdain
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
44.4% 55.6%
Charles Jourdain
With Odds · CatBoost
29.8% 70.2%
Charles Jourdain
With Odds · Ensemble
27.8% 72.2%
Charles Jourdain
With Odds · LightGBM
30.4% 69.6%
Charles Jourdain
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
35.2% 64.8%
Charles Jourdain
With Odds · XGBoost
29.7% 70.3%
Charles Jourdain
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
55%
Decision
29%
KO / TKO
17%
Submission
Decision54.7%
KO / TKO28.5%
Submission16.8%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 154.3%
Round 226.6%
Round 3+19.1%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 45% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Marlon Vera
Charles Jourdain
Net striking dominance
Matchup
19%
Elo rating edge
Matchup
10%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Charles Jourdain
7%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Marlon Vera
7%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup
7%
Age
Marlon Vera
6%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup
6%
Avg takedowns attempted
Marlon Vera
4%
Strikes absorbed/min
Marlon Vera
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Charles Jourdain
3%
Distance strike defense
Marlon Vera
2%
Submission threat edge
Matchup
2%
Body strikes absorbed per min
Marlon Vera
2%
Years fighting
Marlon Vera
2%
← pushes toward Marlon Vera pushes toward Charles Jourdain →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Marlon Vera

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
L DEC
L DEC
L DEC
L DEC
Height: 173 cm
Weight: 135 lbs
Reach: 178 cm
Stance: Switch

Charles Jourdain

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L KO
W DEC
W SUB
W SUB
L KO
Height: 175 cm
Weight: 135 lbs
Reach: 175 cm
Stance: Switch