Marlon Vera
"Chito"
23-11-1
VS
Charles Jourdain
"Air"
17-8-1
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
currently viewing
46.5%
53.5%
Charles Jourdain
LightGBM
45.9%
54.1%
Charles Jourdain
Logistic (Core)
35.2%
64.8%
Charles Jourdain
CatBoost
46.2%
53.8%
Charles Jourdain
Ensemble
45.3%
54.7%
Charles Jourdain
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
52%
Decision
29%
KO / TKO
19%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 48%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Marlon Vera
Charles Jourdain
18%
10%
7%
6%
6%
6%
5%
4%
3%
3%
3%
2%
2%
2%
← pushes toward Marlon Vera
pushes toward Charles Jourdain →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Marlon Vera
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
17.0m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
DEC
L
DEC
L
DEC
L
DEC
W
DEC
Height:
173 cm
Weight:
135 lbs
Reach:
178 cm
Stance:
Switch
Charles Jourdain
Win Streak
3
Finish Rate
40%
Avg Duration
9.6m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
DEC
W
SUB
W
SUB
L
KO
L
DEC
Height:
175 cm
Weight:
135 lbs
Reach:
175 cm
Stance:
Switch
Head-to-Head Stats
Marlon Vera
ADVANTAGE
Charles Jourdain
Striking Accuracy
Strikes Landed/Min
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Striking Defense
Takedown Accuracy
Takedown Defense
Knockdowns/Fight
Avg Control Time (sec)
Strikes Per Round
Head Strike %
Body Strike %
Leg Strike %
Last 5 Win Rate
Last 5 Finish Rate