Jalin Turner
"The Tarantula"
14-9-0
VS
2026-08-15
UFC 330
Lightweight
Kaue Fernandes
11-2-0
LIGHTGBM PREDICTION
Kaue Fernandes
69.5% CONFIDENCE
ACTUAL RESULT — MODEL WAS WRONG
Jalin Turner 'The Tarantula' won
KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:39
Why LightGBM leans this way
Jalin Turner
Kaue Fernandes
Net striking dominance
Matchup
21%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Kaue Fernandes
10%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup
10%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup
8%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Jalin Turner
6%
Strikes absorbed/min
Kaue Fernandes
5%
Avg takedowns attempted
Jalin Turner
4%
Reach edge
Matchup
4%
Last 2 avg fight time
Jalin Turner
4%
Body strikes absorbed per min
Kaue Fernandes
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Kaue Fernandes
3%
Age
Kaue Fernandes
2%
Distance strike defense
Kaue Fernandes
2%
Sub attempts/fight
Kaue Fernandes
2%
← pushes toward Jalin Turner pushes toward Kaue Fernandes →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Jalin Turner

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
W KO
L SUB
L KO
W KO
Height: 190 cm
Weight: 155 lbs
Reach: 196 cm
Stance: Southpaw

Kaue Fernandes

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L KO
W KO
W DEC
W KO
L DEC
Height: 175 cm
Weight: 155 lbs
Reach: 185 cm
Stance: Orthodox