Jalin Turner
"The Tarantula"
14-9-0
VS
2026-08-15
UFC 330
Lightweight
Kaue Fernandes
11-2-0
XGBOOST PREDICTION
Kaue Fernandes
70.0% CONFIDENCE
ACTUAL RESULT — MODEL WAS WRONG
Jalin Turner 'The Tarantula' won
KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:39
Why XGBoost leans this way
Jalin Turner
Kaue Fernandes
Net striking dominance
Matchup
17%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Kaue Fernandes
9%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup
8%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup
6%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Jalin Turner
5%
Avg takedowns attempted
Jalin Turner
5%
Strikes absorbed/min
Kaue Fernandes
4%
Last 2 avg fight time
Jalin Turner
4%
Elo rating edge
Matchup
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Kaue Fernandes
3%
Head absorption rate
Kaue Fernandes
3%
Reach edge
Matchup
3%
Age
Jalin Turner
3%
Sub attempts/fight
Kaue Fernandes
2%
← pushes toward Jalin Turner pushes toward Kaue Fernandes →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Jalin Turner

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
W KO
L SUB
L KO
W KO
Height: 190 cm
Weight: 155 lbs
Reach: 196 cm
Stance: Southpaw

Kaue Fernandes

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L KO
W KO
W DEC
W KO
L DEC
Height: 175 cm
Weight: 155 lbs
Reach: 185 cm
Stance: Orthodox