Diego Ferreira
19-7-0
VS
2026-08-08
UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld
Lightweight
Billy Quarantillo
18-7-0
CATBOOST PREDICTION
Diego Ferreira
56.6% CONFIDENCE
How It Ends
43%
Decision
34%
KO / TKO
23%
Submission
Decision43.3%
KO / TKO34.0%
Submission22.7%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 151.9%
Round 228.4%
Round 3+19.7%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 57% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why CatBoost leans this way
Diego Ferreira
Billy Quarantillo
Elo rating edge
Matchup
13%
Age
Diego Ferreira
12%
Age
Billy Quarantillo
11%
Net striking dominance
Matchup
10%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Diego Ferreira
9%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup
5%
Avg takedowns attempted
Billy Quarantillo
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Diego Ferreira
3%
Fights per year
Diego Ferreira
3%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Billy Quarantillo
3%
Strikes absorbed/min
Billy Quarantillo
3%
Past prime
Diego Ferreira
2%
Distance strike defense
Billy Quarantillo
2%
Knockdowns absorbed/fight
Diego Ferreira
2%
← pushes toward Diego Ferreira pushes toward Billy Quarantillo →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Diego Ferreira

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W DEC
L KO
L DEC
W KO
W KO
Height: 175 cm
Weight: 155 lbs
Reach: 188 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Billy Quarantillo

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L DEC
L KO
L SUB
W DEC
L KO
Height: 178 cm
Weight: 145 lbs
Reach: 178 cm
Stance: Orthodox