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Jeremiah Wells
13-4-1
VS
2026-08-15
UFC 330
Welterweight
Myktybek Orolbai
15-2-1
CATBOOST PREDICTION
Myktybek Orolbai
61.8% CONFIDENCE
ACTUAL RESULT — MODEL WAS WRONG
Jeremiah Wells won
Submission · Round 3 · 1:24
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
24.9% 75.1%
Myktybek Orolbai
LightGBM
30.0% 70.0%
Myktybek Orolbai
Logistic (Core)
38.5% 61.5%
Myktybek Orolbai
CatBoost currently viewing
38.2% 61.8%
Myktybek Orolbai
Ensemble
28.6% 71.4%
Myktybek Orolbai
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
Why CatBoost leans this way
Jeremiah Wells
Myktybek Orolbai
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup
21%
Net striking dominance
Matchup
12%
Avg takedowns attempted
Myktybek Orolbai
11%
Age
Jeremiah Wells
8%
Avg control time
Myktybek Orolbai
7%
Elo rating edge
Matchup
5%
Strikes absorbed/min
Jeremiah Wells
4%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Jeremiah Wells
4%
Age
Myktybek Orolbai
4%
Avg control time
Jeremiah Wells
4%
Distance strike defense
Myktybek Orolbai
2%
Avg takedowns attempted
Jeremiah Wells
2%
Fights per year
Jeremiah Wells
1%
Striking defense
Jeremiah Wells
1%
← pushes toward Jeremiah Wells pushes toward Myktybek Orolbai →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Jeremiah Wells

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W SUB
W DEC
L DEC
L SUB
W DEC
Height: 175 cm
Weight: 170 lbs
Reach: 188 cm
Stance: Switch

Myktybek Orolbai

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L SUB
W DEC
W KO
W SUB
L DEC
Height: 178 cm
Weight: 170 lbs
Reach: 188 cm
Stance: Orthodox