Jeremiah Wells
13-4-1
VS
Myktybek Orolbai
15-2-1
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
24.9%
75.1%
Myktybek Orolbai
LightGBM
currently viewing
30.0%
70.0%
Myktybek Orolbai
Logistic (Core)
38.5%
61.5%
Myktybek Orolbai
CatBoost
38.2%
61.8%
Myktybek Orolbai
Ensemble
28.6%
71.4%
Myktybek Orolbai
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
45%
Decision
26%
KO / TKO
28%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 55%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Jeremiah Wells
Myktybek Orolbai
23%
17%
8%
7%
4%
4%
3%
3%
3%
3%
2%
2%
2%
2%
← pushes toward Jeremiah Wells
pushes toward Myktybek Orolbai →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Jeremiah Wells
Win Streak
1
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
11.7m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
DEC
L
DEC
L
SUB
W
DEC
W
KO
Height:
175 cm
Weight:
170 lbs
Reach:
188 cm
Stance:
Switch
Myktybek Orolbai
Win Streak
3
Finish Rate
40%
Avg Duration
10.5m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
DEC
W
KO
W
SUB
L
DEC
W
DEC
Height:
178 cm
Weight:
170 lbs
Reach:
188 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Jeremiah Wells
ADVANTAGE
Myktybek Orolbai
Striking Accuracy
Strikes Landed/Min
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Striking Defense
Takedown Accuracy
Takedown Defense
Knockdowns/Fight
Avg Control Time (sec)
Strikes Per Round
Head Strike %
Body Strike %
Leg Strike %
Last 5 Win Rate
Last 5 Finish Rate