Michael Aswell Jr.
"The Texas Kid"
11-3-0
VS
2026-09-19
UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2
Featherweight
JooSang Yoo
"Zombie Jr."
9-1-0
MARKET-MARGIN__XGB-FULL PREDICTION
JooSang Yoo 'Zombie Jr.'
70.6% CONFIDENCE
ACTUAL RESULT — MODEL WAS WRONG
Michael Aswell Jr. 'The Texas Kid' won
Decision · Round 3 · 5:00
How It Ends
53%
Decision
35%
KO / TKO
12%
Submission
Decision53.2%
KO / TKO34.9%
Submission11.9%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 154.1%
Round 228.7%
Round 3+17.2%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 47% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why market-margin__xgb-full leans this way
Michael Aswell Jr.
JooSang Yoo
Strikes absorbed/min
Michael Aswell Jr.
7%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup
7%
Avg takedowns attempted
Michael Aswell Jr.
6%
Head strikes absorbed per min
Michael Aswell Jr.
5%
Last 2 avg fight time
JooSang Yoo
5%
Avg takedowns attempted
JooSang Yoo
5%
Sub attempts/fight
Michael Aswell Jr.
4%
Age
JooSang Yoo
4%
Body strikes absorbed per min
Michael Aswell Jr.
4%
Fights per year
JooSang Yoo
4%
Distance strike defense
Michael Aswell Jr.
3%
Age
Michael Aswell Jr.
3%
Elo rating edge
Matchup
3%
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup
3%
← pushes toward Michael Aswell Jr. pushes toward JooSang Yoo →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Michael Aswell Jr.

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W DEC
L DEC
L DEC
W KO
L DEC
Height: 173 cm
Weight: 145 lbs
Reach: 175 cm
Stance: Orthodox

JooSang Yoo

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L DEC
L KO
W KO
Height: 170 cm
Weight: 145 lbs
Reach: 180 cm
Stance: Orthodox