RJ Harris
"The Hammer"
5-0-0
VS
2026-07-18
UFC Fight Night: Tavares vs. Barriault
Heavyweight
Alvin Hines
"Goozie"
7-1-0
CATBOOST PREDICTION
RJ Harris 'The Hammer'
70.8% CONFIDENCE
How It Ends
47%
Decision
37%
KO / TKO
16%
Submission
Decision47.5%
KO / TKO36.8%
Submission15.8%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 153.6%
Round 221.0%
Round 3+25.4%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 53% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why CatBoost leans this way
RJ Harris
Alvin Hines
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup
22%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Alvin Hines
12%
Age
Alvin Hines
10%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup
10%
Age
RJ Harris
6%
Avg takedowns attempted
Alvin Hines
3%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup
3%
Net striking dominance
Matchup
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
RJ Harris
2%
Elo rating edge
Matchup
2%
Fights per year
Alvin Hines
2%
Past prime
Alvin Hines
2%
Fights per year
RJ Harris
2%
Distance strike defense
Alvin Hines
2%
← pushes toward RJ Harris pushes toward Alvin Hines →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

RJ Harris

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
Height: N/A cm
Weight: 258 lbs
Reach: N/A cm
Stance: Orthodox

Alvin Hines

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L KO
L DEC
Height: 188 cm
Weight: 265 lbs
Reach: 188 cm
Stance: Orthodox