Matthieu Duclos
6-3-0
Thin UFC data
VS
Luis Felipe Dias
17-5-0
Thin UFC data
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
58.1%
41.9%
Matthieu Duclos
LightGBM
61.3%
38.7%
Matthieu Duclos
Logistic (Core)
currently viewing
54.5%
45.5%
Matthieu Duclos
CatBoost
53.6%
46.4%
Matthieu Duclos
Ensemble
55.6%
44.4%
Matthieu Duclos
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
37%
Decision
43%
KO / TKO
20%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 63%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Matthieu Duclos
Luis Felipe Dias
19%
10%
6%
5%
4%
4%
4%
3%
3%
3%
2%
2%
2%
2%
← pushes toward Matthieu Duclos
pushes toward Luis Felipe Dias →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Matthieu Duclos
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Height:
190 cm
Weight:
185 lbs
Reach:
196 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Luis Felipe Dias
Win Streak
1
Finish Rate
100%
Avg Duration
3.7m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
KO
Height:
178 cm
Weight:
185 lbs
Reach:
188 cm
Stance:
N/A
Head-to-Head Stats
Matthieu Duclos
ADVANTAGE
Luis Felipe Dias
Striking Accuracy
Strikes Landed/Min
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Striking Defense
Takedown Accuracy
Takedown Defense
Knockdowns/Fight
Avg Control Time (sec)
Strikes Per Round
Head Strike %
Body Strike %
Leg Strike %
Last 5 Win Rate
Last 5 Finish Rate