Matthieu Duclos
6-3-0
VS
Luis Felipe Dias
17-5-0
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
56.9%
43.1%
Matthieu Duclos
LightGBM
59.8%
40.2%
Matthieu Duclos
Logistic (Core)
54.5%
45.5%
Matthieu Duclos
CatBoost
56.4%
43.6%
Matthieu Duclos
Ensemble
54.5%
45.5%
Matthieu Duclos
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
56.1%
43.9%
Matthieu Duclos
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
52.1%
47.9%
Matthieu Duclos
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
55.9%
44.1%
Matthieu Duclos
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
54.8%
45.2%
Matthieu Duclos
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
55.8%
44.2%
Matthieu Duclos
With Odds · CatBoost
51.6%
48.4%
Matthieu Duclos
With Odds · Ensemble
currently viewing
54.5%
45.5%
Matthieu Duclos
With Odds · LightGBM
53.5%
46.5%
Matthieu Duclos
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
54.5%
45.5%
Matthieu Duclos
With Odds · XGBoost
57.5%
42.5%
Matthieu Duclos
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
36%
Decision
44%
KO / TKO
20%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 64%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Matthieu Duclos
Luis Felipe Dias
15%
7%
7%
6%
5%
5%
4%
4%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
2%
← pushes toward Matthieu Duclos
pushes toward Luis Felipe Dias →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Matthieu Duclos
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
KO
Height:
190 cm
Weight:
185 lbs
Reach:
196 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Luis Felipe Dias
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
KO
W
KO
Height:
178 cm
Weight:
185 lbs
Reach:
188 cm
Stance:
N/A