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Vicente Luque
"The Silent Assassin"
23-12-1
VS
2026-08-15
UFC 330
Middleweight
Tresean Gore
"Mr. Vicious"
6-4-0
LIGHTGBM PREDICTION
Vicente Luque 'The Silent Assassin'
59.0% CONFIDENCE
ACTUAL RESULT — MODEL WAS WRONG
Tresean Gore 'Mr. Vicious' won
Decision · Round 3 · 5:00
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
52.7% 47.3%
Vicente Luque
LightGBM currently viewing
59.0% 41.0%
Vicente Luque
Logistic (Core)
71.6% 28.4%
Vicente Luque
CatBoost
58.2% 41.8%
Vicente Luque
Ensemble
56.7% 43.3%
Vicente Luque
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Vicente Luque
Tresean Gore
Net striking dominance
Matchup
17%
Elo rating edge
Matchup
15%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup
8%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup
7%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Tresean Gore
7%
Age
Vicente Luque
5%
Avg takedowns attempted
Vicente Luque
4%
Head absorption rate
Tresean Gore
4%
Avg takedowns attempted
Tresean Gore
4%
KO power vs chin mismatch
Matchup
2%
Strikes absorbed/min
Vicente Luque
2%
Last 2 avg fight time
Tresean Gore
2%
Fights per year
Tresean Gore
2%
Distance strike defense
Tresean Gore
2%
← pushes toward Vicente Luque pushes toward Tresean Gore →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Vicente Luque

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L DEC
W SUB
L DEC
L SUB
W SUB
Height: 180 cm
Weight: 170 lbs
Reach: 190 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Tresean Gore

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W DEC
W SUB
L DEC
L KO
W SUB
Height: 183 cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: 190 cm
Stance: Switch