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Cody Garbrandt
"No Love"
14-7-0
VS
2026-07-11
UFC 329
Bantamweight
Adrian Yanez
17-6-0
LIGHTGBM PREDICTION
Cody Garbrandt 'No Love'
53.6% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
49.3% 50.7%
Adrian Yanez
LightGBM currently viewing
53.6% 46.4%
Cody Garbrandt
Logistic (Core)
40.8% 59.2%
Adrian Yanez
CatBoost
48.5% 51.5%
Adrian Yanez
Ensemble
48.0% 52.0%
Adrian Yanez
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
64%
Decision
29%
KO / TKO
7%
Submission
Decision64.1%
KO / TKO28.7%
Submission7.2%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 144.9%
Round 233.1%
Round 3+22.0%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 36% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Cody Garbrandt
Adrian Yanez
Net striking dominance
Matchup
20%
Age
Cody Garbrandt
10%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup
8%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Cody Garbrandt
6%
Avg takedowns attempted
Cody Garbrandt
5%
Avg takedowns attempted
Adrian Yanez
5%
Head absorption rate
Cody Garbrandt
4%
Strikes absorbed/min
Adrian Yanez
3%
Fights per year
Cody Garbrandt
3%
Sub attempts/fight
Cody Garbrandt
3%
Distance strike defense
Cody Garbrandt
3%
Age
Adrian Yanez
3%
Distance strike defense
Adrian Yanez
2%
Strikes absorbed/min
Cody Garbrandt
2%
← pushes toward Cody Garbrandt pushes toward Adrian Yanez →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Cody Garbrandt

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L KO
W DEC
L DEC
L SUB
W KO
Height: 173 cm
Weight: 135 lbs
Reach: 165 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Adrian Yanez

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
D DEC
L DEC
W KO
L KO
Height: 170 cm
Weight: 135 lbs
Reach: 178 cm
Stance: Orthodox