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Cody Garbrandt
"No Love"
14-7-0
VS
2026-07-11
UFC 329
Bantamweight
Adrian Yanez
17-6-0
XGBOOST PREDICTION
Adrian Yanez
50.7% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost currently viewing
49.3% 50.7%
Adrian Yanez
LightGBM
53.6% 46.4%
Cody Garbrandt
Logistic (Core)
40.8% 59.2%
Adrian Yanez
CatBoost
48.5% 51.5%
Adrian Yanez
Ensemble
48.0% 52.0%
Adrian Yanez
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
64%
Decision
29%
KO / TKO
7%
Submission
Decision64.1%
KO / TKO28.7%
Submission7.2%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 144.9%
Round 233.1%
Round 3+22.0%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 36% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Cody Garbrandt
Adrian Yanez
Net striking dominance
Matchup
17%
Age
Cody Garbrandt
9%
Avg takedowns attempted
Adrian Yanez
6%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup
5%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Cody Garbrandt
5%
Avg takedowns attempted
Cody Garbrandt
5%
Reach edge
Matchup
4%
Last 2 avg fight time
Adrian Yanez
3%
Sub attempts/fight
Adrian Yanez
3%
Head absorption rate
Cody Garbrandt
3%
Strikes absorbed/min
Adrian Yanez
3%
Last 2 avg fight time
Cody Garbrandt
3%
Sub attempts/fight
Cody Garbrandt
3%
Fights per year
Cody Garbrandt
3%
← pushes toward Cody Garbrandt pushes toward Adrian Yanez →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Cody Garbrandt

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L KO
W DEC
L DEC
L SUB
W KO
Height: 173 cm
Weight: 135 lbs
Reach: 165 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Adrian Yanez

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
D DEC
L DEC
W KO
L KO
Height: 170 cm
Weight: 135 lbs
Reach: 178 cm
Stance: Orthodox