Aleksandar Rakic
"Rocket"
14-6-0
VS
2026-08-01
UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez
Heavyweight
Marcin Tybura
"Tybur"
27-10-0
LIGHTGBM PREDICTION
Aleksandar Rakic 'Rocket'
66.4% CONFIDENCE
How It Ends
43%
Decision
42%
KO / TKO
15%
Submission
Decision43.0%
KO / TKO41.9%
Submission15.1%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 152.2%
Round 231.3%
Round 3+16.4%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 57% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Aleksandar Rakic
Marcin Tybura
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup
20%
Age
Marcin Tybura
10%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup
9%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Marcin Tybura
9%
Avg takedowns attempted
Aleksandar Rakic
6%
Age
Aleksandar Rakic
5%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup
4%
Net striking dominance
Matchup
4%
Fights in last 2 years
Marcin Tybura
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Marcin Tybura
2%
Fights per year
Aleksandar Rakic
2%
Distance strike defense
Aleksandar Rakic
2%
Elo rating edge
Matchup
2%
Head absorption rate
Aleksandar Rakic
2%
← pushes toward Aleksandar Rakic pushes toward Marcin Tybura →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Aleksandar Rakic

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W DEC
L KO
L DEC
L KO
L KO
Height: 193 cm
Weight: 205 lbs
Reach: 198 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Marcin Tybura

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L DEC
L DEC
L KO
W DEC
W KO
Height: 190 cm
Weight: 246 lbs
Reach: 198 cm
Stance: Orthodox