Back
Melissa Croden
"Scare"
7-2-0
VS
2026-10-17
UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott
Women's Bantamweight
Chelsea Chandler
6-4-0
CATBOOST PREDICTION
Melissa Croden 'Scare'
72.4% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
71.7% 28.3%
Melissa Croden
LightGBM
71.3% 28.7%
Melissa Croden
Logistic (Core)
64.3% 35.7%
Melissa Croden
CatBoost currently viewing
72.4% 27.6%
Melissa Croden
Ensemble
72.5% 27.5%
Melissa Croden
No Age · CatBoost
73.1% 26.9%
Melissa Croden
No Age · Ensemble
74.1% 25.9%
Melissa Croden
No Age · LightGBM
72.4% 27.6%
Melissa Croden
No Age · Logistic (Core)
64.9% 35.1%
Melissa Croden
No Age · XGBoost
73.6% 26.4%
Melissa Croden
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
69.9% 30.1%
Melissa Croden
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
71.0% 29.0%
Melissa Croden
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
70.1% 29.9%
Melissa Croden
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
62.5% 37.5%
Melissa Croden
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
65.5% 34.5%
Melissa Croden
With Odds · CatBoost
58.0% 42.0%
Melissa Croden
With Odds · Ensemble
60.3% 39.7%
Melissa Croden
With Odds · LightGBM
58.1% 41.9%
Melissa Croden
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
64.3% 35.7%
Melissa Croden
With Odds · XGBoost
56.7% 43.3%
Melissa Croden
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
59%
Decision
25%
KO / TKO
16%
Submission
Decision58.8%
KO / TKO25.0%
Submission16.1%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 146.5%
Round 234.3%
Round 3+19.3%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 41% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why CatBoost leans this way
Melissa Croden
Chelsea Chandler
Net striking dominance
Matchup +1.20
21%
Age
Chelsea Chandler 35.9 yrs
9%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup 0.11
9%
Age
Melissa Croden 35.5 yrs
8%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Melissa Croden -1.04
7%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Chelsea Chandler -0.34
6%
Elo rating edge
Matchup 19
4%
Avg takedowns attempted
Chelsea Chandler 1.68
4%
Avg takedowns attempted
Melissa Croden 3.35
4%
Distance strike defense
Melissa Croden 63%
3%
Distance strike defense
Chelsea Chandler 53%
2%
Fights per year
Melissa Croden 6
2%
Head absorption rate
Chelsea Chandler 58%
2%
Fights per year
Chelsea Chandler 1.63
2%
← pushes toward Melissa Croden pushes toward Chelsea Chandler →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Melissa Croden

Win Streak
1
Finish Rate
33%
Avg Duration
14.8m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W DEC
L DEC
W KO
Height: 175 cm
Weight: 135 lbs
Reach: 173 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Chelsea Chandler

Win Streak
1
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
10.2m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W SUB
L KO
L DEC
W DEC
L DEC
Height: 173 cm
Weight: 135 lbs
Reach: 173 cm
Stance: Southpaw
Head-to-Head Stats
Melissa Croden
ADVANTAGE
Chelsea Chandler
Striking Accuracy
46.3%
+1.6%
44.7%
Strikes Landed/Min
3.93
+0.76
3.16
Strikes Absorbed/Min
2.49
+1.24
3.73
Striking Defense
57.8%
+11.1%
46.7%
Takedown Accuracy
43.0%
+2.1%
40.9%
Takedown Defense
64.4%
+11.7%
52.6%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.22
+0.01
0.23
Avg Control Time (sec)
85.65
+2.24
83.41
Strikes Per Round
18.61
+2.51
16.10
Head Strike %
66.7%
+1.6%
65.1%
Body Strike %
18.6%
+4.6%
23.3%
Leg Strike %
14.7%
+3.0%
11.7%
Last 5 Win Rate
66.7%
+26.7%
40.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
33.3%
+13.3%
20.0%