Melissa Croden
"Scare"
7-2-0
VS
Chelsea Chandler
6-4-0
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
75.6%
24.4%
Melissa Croden
LightGBM
currently viewing
72.4%
27.6%
Melissa Croden
Logistic (Core)
65.2%
34.8%
Melissa Croden
CatBoost
73.0%
27.0%
Melissa Croden
Ensemble
75.1%
24.9%
Melissa Croden
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
59%
Decision
24%
KO / TKO
16%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 41%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Melissa Croden
Chelsea Chandler
17%
9%
9%
7%
7%
5%
5%
4%
4%
3%
3%
3%
2%
2%
← pushes toward Melissa Croden
pushes toward Chelsea Chandler →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Melissa Croden
Win Streak
1
Finish Rate
33%
Avg Duration
14.8m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
DEC
L
DEC
W
KO
Height:
175 cm
Weight:
135 lbs
Reach:
173 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Chelsea Chandler
Win Streak
1
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
10.2m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
SUB
L
KO
L
DEC
W
DEC
L
DEC
Height:
173 cm
Weight:
135 lbs
Reach:
173 cm
Stance:
Southpaw
Head-to-Head Stats
Melissa Croden
ADVANTAGE
Chelsea Chandler
Striking Accuracy
Strikes Landed/Min
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Striking Defense
Takedown Accuracy
Takedown Defense
Knockdowns/Fight
Avg Control Time (sec)
Strikes Per Round
Head Strike %
Body Strike %
Leg Strike %
Last 5 Win Rate
Last 5 Finish Rate