Chase Hooper
"The Dream"
16-4-1
VS
2026-07-18
UFC Fight Night: Tavares vs. Barriault
Lightweight
Mitch Ramirez
8-3-0
CATBOOST PREDICTION
Chase Hooper 'The Dream'
75.2% CONFIDENCE
How It Ends
44%
Decision
28%
KO / TKO
29%
Submission
Decision43.7%
KO / TKO27.6%
Submission28.7%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 153.9%
Round 231.7%
Round 3+14.4%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 56% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why CatBoost leans this way
Chase Hooper
Mitch Ramirez
Net striking dominance
Matchup
16%
Elo rating edge
Matchup
16%
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup
14%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup
8%
Age
Mitch Ramirez
5%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Mitch Ramirez
5%
Age
Chase Hooper
4%
Avg takedowns attempted
Chase Hooper
3%
Past prime
Mitch Ramirez
2%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup
2%
Fights per year
Mitch Ramirez
2%
Avg takedowns attempted
Mitch Ramirez
2%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Chase Hooper
2%
Finishing threat edge
Matchup
2%
← pushes toward Chase Hooper pushes toward Mitch Ramirez →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Chase Hooper

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W SUB
L KO
L KO
W DEC
W SUB
Height: 185 cm
Weight: 155 lbs
Reach: 188 cm
Stance: Southpaw

Mitch Ramirez

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L SUB
L KO
L KO
Height: 180 cm
Weight: 155 lbs
Reach: 180 cm
Stance: Orthodox