Santiago Ponzinibbio
"Argentine Dagger"
31-9-0
VS
Sam Patterson
14-2-1
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
43.1%
56.9%
Sam Patterson
LightGBM
45.0%
55.0%
Sam Patterson
Logistic (Core)
35.9%
64.1%
Sam Patterson
CatBoost
currently viewing
45.8%
54.2%
Sam Patterson
Ensemble
42.4%
57.6%
Sam Patterson
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
47%
Decision
40%
KO / TKO
13%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 53%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why CatBoost leans this way
Santiago Ponzinibbio
Sam Patterson
20%
12%
11%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
4%
2%
2%
2%
2%
1%
← pushes toward Santiago Ponzinibbio
pushes toward Sam Patterson →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Santiago Ponzinibbio
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
KO
L
KO
W
KO
L
DEC
L
KO
Height:
183 cm
Weight:
170 lbs
Reach:
185 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Sam Patterson
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
KO
L
DEC
W
KO
W
KO
W
SUB
Height:
190 cm
Weight:
170 lbs
Reach:
198 cm
Stance:
Orthodox