Santiago Ponzinibbio
"Argentine Dagger"
31-9-0
VS
2026-07-25
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Rountree Jr
Welterweight
Sam Patterson
14-2-1
XGBOOST PREDICTION
Sam Patterson
56.9% CONFIDENCE
How It Ends
47%
Decision
40%
KO / TKO
13%
Submission
Decision47.0%
KO / TKO40.3%
Submission12.7%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 152.6%
Round 230.1%
Round 3+17.3%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 53% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Santiago Ponzinibbio
Sam Patterson
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup
16%
Age
Santiago Ponzinibbio
11%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup
9%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup
6%
Avg takedowns attempted
Sam Patterson
6%
Head absorption rate
Santiago Ponzinibbio
4%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Santiago Ponzinibbio
4%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Sam Patterson
4%
Sub attempts/fight
Santiago Ponzinibbio
3%
Fights per year
Santiago Ponzinibbio
3%
Age
Sam Patterson
3%
Elo rating edge
Matchup
3%
Body strikes absorbed per min
Santiago Ponzinibbio
2%
Strikes absorbed/min
Santiago Ponzinibbio
2%
← pushes toward Santiago Ponzinibbio pushes toward Sam Patterson →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Santiago Ponzinibbio

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L KO
L KO
W KO
L DEC
L KO
Height: 183 cm
Weight: 170 lbs
Reach: 185 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Sam Patterson

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
L DEC
W KO
W KO
W SUB
Height: 190 cm
Weight: 170 lbs
Reach: 198 cm
Stance: Orthodox