Liu Ce
3-1-0
VS
2026-08-29
UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song
Light Heavyweight
Levi Rodrigues Jr.
"Baby Monster"
6-0-0
CATBOOST PREDICTION
Liu Ce
62.7% CONFIDENCE
ACTUAL RESULT — MODEL WAS CORRECT
Liu Ce won
KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:26
How It Ends
43%
Decision
38%
KO / TKO
19%
Submission
Decision42.9%
KO / TKO38.0%
Submission19.1%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 153.8%
Round 227.8%
Round 3+18.5%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 57% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why CatBoost leans this way
Liu Ce
Levi Rodrigues Jr.
Elo rating edge
Matchup
13%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup
12%
Age
Liu Ce
7%
Age
Levi Rodrigues Jr.
6%
Avg takedowns attempted
Levi Rodrigues Jr.
6%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup
6%
Avg takedowns attempted
Liu Ce
4%
Distance strike defense
Levi Rodrigues Jr.
3%
Fights per year
Levi Rodrigues Jr.
3%
Total career fights (incl. non-UFC)
Levi Rodrigues Jr.
3%
Striker anti-wrestling edge
Matchup
3%
Elo rating
Levi Rodrigues Jr.
3%
Total career fights (incl. non-UFC)
Liu Ce
3%
Fights per year
Liu Ce
2%
← pushes toward Liu Ce pushes toward Levi Rodrigues Jr. →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Liu Ce

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
Height: N/A cm
Weight: 205 lbs
Reach: N/A cm
Stance: N/A

Levi Rodrigues Jr.

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L KO
L KO
Height: 183 cm
Weight: 205 lbs
Reach: 193 cm
Stance: Orthodox