Jamey-Lyn Horth
8-2-0
VS
2026-10-17
UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott
Women's Flyweight
Katlyn Cerminara
"Blonde Fighter"
18-6-0
LIGHTGBM PREDICTION
Jamey-Lyn Horth
72.3% CONFIDENCE
How It Ends
69%
Decision
19%
KO / TKO
11%
Submission
Decision69.4%
KO / TKO19.3%
Submission11.4%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 139.3%
Round 238.6%
Round 3+22.1%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 31% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Jamey-Lyn Horth
Katlyn Cerminara
Net striking dominance
Matchup +1.06
16%
Age
Katlyn Cerminara 37.8 yrs
8%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Jamey-Lyn Horth -0.83
8%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Katlyn Cerminara -1.12
8%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup -14
7%
Age
Jamey-Lyn Horth 36.6 yrs
7%
Elo rating edge
Matchup -31
5%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup 0.12
5%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup 10%
4%
Distance strike defense
Jamey-Lyn Horth 65%
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Katlyn Cerminara 2.60
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Jamey-Lyn Horth 2.22
3%
Distance strike defense
Katlyn Cerminara 63%
2%
Fights in last 2 years
Jamey-Lyn Horth 5
2%
← pushes toward Jamey-Lyn Horth pushes toward Katlyn Cerminara →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Jamey-Lyn Horth

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
12.4m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L DEC
W KO
W DEC
L DEC
W DEC
Height: 170 cm
Weight: 125 lbs
Reach: 168 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Katlyn Cerminara

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
15.0m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L DEC
L DEC
W DEC
W DEC
W DEC
Height: 175 cm
Weight: 125 lbs
Reach: 173 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Jamey-Lyn Horth
ADVANTAGE
Katlyn Cerminara
Striking Accuracy
44.3%
+6.1%
38.2%
Strikes Landed/Min
3.74
+0.57
4.30
Strikes Absorbed/Min
2.69
+1.63
4.32
Striking Defense
62.4%
+3.5%
58.9%
Takedown Accuracy
40.6%
+8.3%
32.3%
Takedown Defense
75.5%
+20.5%
55.0%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.06
+0.03
0.09
Avg Control Time (sec)
66.59
+9.49
76.08
Strikes Per Round
18.33
+1.73
20.07
Head Strike %
57.5%
+5.0%
62.5%
Body Strike %
26.9%
+3.4%
23.5%
Leg Strike %
15.6%
+1.7%
14.0%
Last 5 Win Rate
60.0%
EVEN
60.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
20.0%
+20.0%
0.0%