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Jamey-Lyn Horth
8-2-0
VS
2026-10-17
UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott
Women's Flyweight
Katlyn Cerminara
"Blonde Fighter"
18-6-0
LOGISTIC (CORE) PREDICTION
Jamey-Lyn Horth
63.7% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
74.7% 25.3%
Jamey-Lyn Horth
LightGBM
72.1% 27.9%
Jamey-Lyn Horth
Logistic (Core) currently viewing
63.7% 36.3%
Jamey-Lyn Horth
CatBoost
70.4% 29.6%
Jamey-Lyn Horth
Ensemble
75.7% 24.3%
Jamey-Lyn Horth
No Age · CatBoost
72.1% 27.9%
Jamey-Lyn Horth
No Age · Ensemble
77.2% 22.8%
Jamey-Lyn Horth
No Age · LightGBM
75.2% 24.8%
Jamey-Lyn Horth
No Age · Logistic (Core)
64.9% 35.1%
Jamey-Lyn Horth
No Age · XGBoost
75.9% 24.1%
Jamey-Lyn Horth
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
69.4% 30.6%
Jamey-Lyn Horth
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
75.2% 24.8%
Jamey-Lyn Horth
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
72.7% 27.3%
Jamey-Lyn Horth
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
64.2% 35.8%
Jamey-Lyn Horth
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
76.7% 23.3%
Jamey-Lyn Horth
With Odds · CatBoost
57.7% 42.3%
Jamey-Lyn Horth
With Odds · Ensemble
64.0% 36.0%
Jamey-Lyn Horth
With Odds · LightGBM
59.0% 41.0%
Jamey-Lyn Horth
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
63.7% 36.3%
Jamey-Lyn Horth
With Odds · XGBoost
59.3% 40.7%
Jamey-Lyn Horth
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
73%
Decision
17%
KO / TKO
10%
Submission
Decision72.9%
KO / TKO16.6%
Submission10.5%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 142.6%
Round 237.8%
Round 3+19.7%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 27% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Jamey-Lyn Horth
Katlyn Cerminara
Net striking dominance
Matchup +1.06
15%
Age
Katlyn Cerminara 37.8 yrs
10%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Katlyn Cerminara -1.12
9%
Age
Jamey-Lyn Horth 36.6 yrs
8%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Jamey-Lyn Horth -0.83
7%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup -14
5%
Distance strike defense
Jamey-Lyn Horth 65%
3%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup 10%
3%
Elo rating edge
Matchup -31
3%
Strikes absorbed/min
Katlyn Cerminara 4.32
3%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup 0.12
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Jamey-Lyn Horth 2.22
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Katlyn Cerminara 2.60
3%
Head-strike accuracy
Katlyn Cerminara 27%
2%
← pushes toward Jamey-Lyn Horth pushes toward Katlyn Cerminara →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Jamey-Lyn Horth

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
12.4m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L DEC
W KO
W DEC
L DEC
W DEC
Height: 170 cm
Weight: 125 lbs
Reach: 168 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Katlyn Cerminara

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
15.0m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L DEC
L DEC
W DEC
W DEC
W DEC
Height: 175 cm
Weight: 125 lbs
Reach: 173 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Jamey-Lyn Horth
ADVANTAGE
Katlyn Cerminara
Striking Accuracy
44.3%
+6.1%
38.2%
Strikes Landed/Min
3.74
+0.57
4.30
Strikes Absorbed/Min
2.69
+1.63
4.32
Striking Defense
62.4%
+3.5%
58.9%
Takedown Accuracy
40.6%
+8.3%
32.3%
Takedown Defense
75.5%
+20.5%
55.0%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.06
+0.03
0.09
Avg Control Time (sec)
66.59
+9.49
76.08
Strikes Per Round
18.33
+1.73
20.07
Head Strike %
57.5%
+5.0%
62.5%
Body Strike %
26.9%
+3.4%
23.5%
Leg Strike %
15.6%
+1.7%
14.0%
Last 5 Win Rate
60.0%
EVEN
60.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
20.0%
+20.0%
0.0%