Gable Steveson vs Sean Sharaf

Gable Steveson

3-0-0

VS

2026-09-19

UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2

Heavyweight

Sean Sharaf

"The Smoke"

4-1-0

What Every Model Says

Logistic (Core)

market-margin__xgb-full

No Age · CatBoost

No Age · Ensemble

No Age · LightGBM

No Age · Logistic (Core) currently viewing

No Age · XGBoost

Recency-Heavy · CatBoost

Recency-Heavy · Ensemble

Recency-Heavy · LightGBM

Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)

Recency-Heavy · XGBoost

With Odds · CatBoost

With Odds · Ensemble

With Odds · LightGBM

With Odds · Logistic (Core)

With Odds · XGBoost

Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.

How It Ends

34%

Decision

52%

KO / TKO

14%

Submission

Decision34.0%

KO / TKO52.0%

Submission14.0%

If it's a finish, which round

Round 166.0%

Round 223.3%

Round 3+10.8%

A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 66% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.

Why XGBoost leans this way

Gable Steveson

Sean Sharaf

Age edge (significant gap)

Matchup

13%

Net striking dominance

Matchup

11%

Elo rating edge

Matchup

10%

Avg takedowns attempted

Gable Steveson

5%

Total career fights (incl. non-UFC)

Gable Steveson

5%

Age

Gable Steveson

5%

Defensive skill edge

Matchup

4%

Strikes absorbed/min

Sean Sharaf

4%

Total career fights (incl. non-UFC)

Sean Sharaf

4%

Head-strike accuracy edge

Matchup

4%

Age

Sean Sharaf

4%

Last 2 avg fight time

Gable Steveson

3%

Last 2 avg fight time

Sean Sharaf

3%

Finishing threat edge

Matchup

2%

← pushes toward Gable Steveson pushes toward Sean Sharaf →

Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.