Ignacio Bahamondes
"La Jaula"
17-6-0
VS
2026-09-12
UFC Fight Night: Elliott vs. Chairez
Welterweight
Muslim Salikhov
"King of Kung Fu"
22-6-0
CATBOOST PREDICTION
Ignacio Bahamondes 'La Jaula'
70.3% CONFIDENCE
How It Ends
37%
Decision
44%
KO / TKO
18%
Submission
Decision37.5%
KO / TKO44.5%
Submission18.0%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 152.0%
Round 231.1%
Round 3+17.0%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 63% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why CatBoost leans this way
Ignacio Bahamondes
Muslim Salikhov
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup -13.22
23%
Net striking dominance
Matchup +0.61
13%
Age
Muslim Salikhov 42.3 yrs
8%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Muslim Salikhov -0.75
8%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup -0.07
7%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup -5
7%
Age
Ignacio Bahamondes 29.0 yrs
4%
Avg takedowns attempted
Ignacio Bahamondes 1.71
4%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Ignacio Bahamondes +0.27
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Muslim Salikhov 2.13
3%
Distance strike defense
Muslim Salikhov 63%
2%
Fights per year
Muslim Salikhov 1.76
2%
Striking defense
Muslim Salikhov 58%
1%
Fights per year
Ignacio Bahamondes 2.01
1%
← pushes toward Ignacio Bahamondes pushes toward Muslim Salikhov →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Ignacio Bahamondes

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
60%
Avg Duration
8.0m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L DEC
L DEC
W SUB
W KO
W KO
Height: 190 cm
Weight: 155 lbs
Reach: 190 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Muslim Salikhov

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
40%
Avg Duration
4.8m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L KO
W KO
W KO
W DEC
L KO
Height: 180 cm
Weight: 170 lbs
Reach: 178 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Ignacio Bahamondes
ADVANTAGE
Muslim Salikhov
Striking Accuracy
45.2%
+2.5%
47.6%
Strikes Landed/Min
3.97
+1.15
2.82
Strikes Absorbed/Min
3.28
+0.54
2.74
Striking Defense
54.2%
+3.5%
57.7%
Takedown Accuracy
28.7%
+4.8%
33.4%
Takedown Defense
55.0%
+9.6%
64.6%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.44
+0.13
0.31
Avg Control Time (sec)
61.69
+3.19
64.88
Strikes Per Round
18.49
+4.08
14.41
Head Strike %
58.0%
+0.2%
57.8%
Body Strike %
22.3%
+2.2%
24.5%
Leg Strike %
19.7%
+2.0%
17.7%
Last 5 Win Rate
60.0%
EVEN
60.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
60.0%
+20.0%
40.0%