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Alonzo Menifield
"Atomic"
17-6-1
VS
2026-09-19
UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2
Light Heavyweight
Iwo Baraniewski
"Rudy"
6-0-0
LIGHTGBM PREDICTION
Iwo Baraniewski 'Rudy'
62.3% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
36.8% 63.2%
Iwo Baraniewski
LightGBM currently viewing
37.7% 62.3%
Iwo Baraniewski
Logistic (Core)
34.5% 65.5%
Iwo Baraniewski
CatBoost
36.1% 63.9%
Iwo Baraniewski
Ensemble
32.9% 67.1%
Iwo Baraniewski
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
26%
Decision
61%
KO / TKO
13%
Submission
Decision25.9%
KO / TKO60.9%
Submission13.1%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 161.9%
Round 226.3%
Round 3+11.8%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 74% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Alonzo Menifield
Iwo Baraniewski
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup +11.09
16%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup +18
11%
Net striking dominance
Matchup -0.28
9%
Age
Alonzo Menifield 38.9 yrs
9%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Alonzo Menifield -0.92
7%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup 0.03
6%
Avg takedowns attempted
Iwo Baraniewski 1.65
5%
Age
Iwo Baraniewski 27.8 yrs
4%
Head absorption rate
Alonzo Menifield 58%
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Alonzo Menifield 1.16
3%
Last 2 avg fight time
Iwo Baraniewski 56.50
2%
Finishing threat edge
Matchup -0.30
2%
Total career fights (incl. non-UFC)
Iwo Baraniewski 6
2%
Distance strike defense
Iwo Baraniewski 60%
2%
← pushes toward Alonzo Menifield pushes toward Iwo Baraniewski →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Alonzo Menifield

Win Streak
1
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
8.8m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
L KO
W DEC
W DEC
L KO
Height: 183 cm
Weight: 205 lbs
Reach: 193 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Iwo Baraniewski

Win Streak
3
Finish Rate
100%
Avg Duration
1.1m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
W KO
W KO
Height: 183 cm
Weight: 205 lbs
Reach: 185 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Alonzo Menifield
ADVANTAGE
Iwo Baraniewski
Striking Accuracy
49.2%
+1.5%
47.7%
Strikes Landed/Min
3.21
+0.47
2.74
Strikes Absorbed/Min
3.40
+0.94
2.46
Striking Defense
52.9%
+2.3%
55.2%
Takedown Accuracy
37.2%
+4.3%
32.9%
Takedown Defense
72.4%
+7.7%
64.7%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.42
+0.31
0.73
Avg Control Time (sec)
72.34
+9.23
63.11
Strikes Per Round
15.76
+1.47
14.29
Head Strike %
72.9%
+7.8%
65.1%
Body Strike %
15.4%
+3.5%
19.0%
Leg Strike %
11.7%
+4.3%
15.9%
Last 5 Win Rate
60.0%
+40.0%
100.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
20.0%
+80.0%
100.0%