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Alonzo Menifield
"Atomic"
17-6-1
VS
2026-09-19
UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2
Light Heavyweight
Iwo Baraniewski
"Rudy"
6-0-0
RECENCY-HEAVY · XGBOOST PREDICTION
Iwo Baraniewski 'Rudy'
67.9% CONFIDENCE
ACTUAL RESULT — MODEL WAS WRONG
Alonzo Menifield 'Atomic' won
Decision · Round 3 · 5:00
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
29.0% 71.0%
Iwo Baraniewski
LightGBM
32.6% 67.4%
Iwo Baraniewski
Logistic (Core)
34.9% 65.1%
Iwo Baraniewski
CatBoost
36.4% 63.6%
Iwo Baraniewski
Ensemble
30.8% 69.2%
Iwo Baraniewski
market-margin__xgb-full
29.4% 70.6%
Iwo Baraniewski
No Age · CatBoost
43.0% 57.0%
Iwo Baraniewski
No Age · Ensemble
34.4% 65.6%
Iwo Baraniewski
No Age · LightGBM
38.4% 61.6%
Iwo Baraniewski
No Age · Logistic (Core)
43.6% 56.4%
Iwo Baraniewski
No Age · XGBoost
33.4% 66.6%
Iwo Baraniewski
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
34.4% 65.6%
Iwo Baraniewski
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
30.5% 69.5%
Iwo Baraniewski
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
34.9% 65.1%
Iwo Baraniewski
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
35.3% 64.7%
Iwo Baraniewski
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost currently viewing
32.1% 67.9%
Iwo Baraniewski
With Odds · CatBoost
26.4% 73.6%
Iwo Baraniewski
With Odds · Ensemble
28.8% 71.2%
Iwo Baraniewski
With Odds · LightGBM
31.2% 68.8%
Iwo Baraniewski
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
34.9% 65.1%
Iwo Baraniewski
With Odds · XGBoost
31.6% 68.4%
Iwo Baraniewski
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
28%
Decision
60%
KO / TKO
13%
Submission
Decision27.8%
KO / TKO59.5%
Submission12.6%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 151.1%
Round 234.0%
Round 3+14.9%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 72% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Alonzo Menifield
Iwo Baraniewski
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup
16%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup
12%
Net striking dominance
Matchup
11%
Age
Alonzo Menifield
8%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Alonzo Menifield
7%
Head absorption rate
Alonzo Menifield
5%
Total control time conceded
Iwo Baraniewski
4%
Age
Iwo Baraniewski
3%
Last 2 avg fight time
Iwo Baraniewski
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Iwo Baraniewski
3%
Finishing threat edge
Matchup
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Alonzo Menifield
2%
Sub attempts/fight
Alonzo Menifield
2%
Sub attempts/fight
Iwo Baraniewski
2%
← pushes toward Alonzo Menifield pushes toward Iwo Baraniewski →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Alonzo Menifield

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W DEC
W KO
L KO
W DEC
W DEC
Height: 183 cm
Weight: 205 lbs
Reach: 193 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Iwo Baraniewski

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L DEC
W KO
W KO
W KO
Height: 183 cm
Weight: 205 lbs
Reach: 185 cm
Stance: Orthodox