Alonzo Menifield
"Atomic"
17-6-1
VS
2026-09-19
UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2
Light Heavyweight
Iwo Baraniewski
"Rudy"
6-0-0
WITH ODDS · LIGHTGBM PREDICTION
Iwo Baraniewski 'Rudy'
68.8% CONFIDENCE
ACTUAL RESULT — MODEL WAS WRONG
Alonzo Menifield 'Atomic' won
Decision · Round 3 · 5:00
How It Ends
28%
Decision
60%
KO / TKO
13%
Submission
Decision27.8%
KO / TKO59.5%
Submission12.6%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 151.1%
Round 234.0%
Round 3+14.9%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 72% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Alonzo Menifield
Iwo Baraniewski
Market latest prob diff
Matchup
24%
Market opening prob diff
Matchup
17%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup
7%
Last 2 avg fight time
Iwo Baraniewski
5%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Alonzo Menifield
5%
Sub attempts/fight
Iwo Baraniewski
4%
Age
Alonzo Menifield
4%
Net striking dominance
Matchup
3%
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Iwo Baraniewski
3%
Sub attempts/fight
Alonzo Menifield
2%
Head absorption rate
Alonzo Menifield
2%
Avg takedowns attempted
Alonzo Menifield
2%
Market line movement diff
Matchup
2%
← pushes toward Alonzo Menifield pushes toward Iwo Baraniewski →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Alonzo Menifield

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W DEC
W KO
L KO
W DEC
W DEC
Height: 183 cm
Weight: 205 lbs
Reach: 193 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Iwo Baraniewski

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L DEC
W KO
W KO
W KO
Height: 183 cm
Weight: 205 lbs
Reach: 185 cm
Stance: Orthodox