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Alessandro Costa
"Nono"
14-5-0
VS
2026-07-11
UFC 329
Flyweight
Cody Durden
"Custom Made"
17-9-1
CATBOOST PREDICTION
Alessandro Costa 'Nono'
69.1% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
64.9% 35.1%
Alessandro Costa
LightGBM
64.7% 35.3%
Alessandro Costa
Logistic (Core)
73.2% 26.8%
Alessandro Costa
CatBoost currently viewing
69.1% 30.9%
Alessandro Costa
Ensemble
62.8% 37.2%
Alessandro Costa
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
54%
Decision
29%
KO / TKO
18%
Submission
Decision53.5%
KO / TKO28.8%
Submission17.7%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 150.3%
Round 234.4%
Round 3+15.3%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 46% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why CatBoost leans this way
Alessandro Costa
Cody Durden
Elo rating edge
Matchup
12%
Net striking dominance
Matchup
12%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup
9%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Alessandro Costa
8%
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup
7%
Age
Cody Durden
7%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup
7%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Cody Durden
5%
Age
Alessandro Costa
3%
Finishing threat edge
Matchup
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Cody Durden
3%
Past prime
Cody Durden
3%
Fights per year
Alessandro Costa
2%
Avg takedowns attempted
Alessandro Costa
2%
← pushes toward Alessandro Costa pushes toward Cody Durden →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Alessandro Costa

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W SUB
W KO
W KO
L KO
W KO
Height: 163 cm
Weight: 125 lbs
Reach: 170 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Cody Durden

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L SUB
W DEC
L DEC
L SUB
L KO
Height: 170 cm
Weight: 125 lbs
Reach: 170 cm
Stance: Southpaw