Alessandro Costa
"Nono"
14-5-0
VS
Cody Durden
"Custom Made"
17-9-1
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
64.9%
35.1%
Alessandro Costa
LightGBM
currently viewing
64.7%
35.3%
Alessandro Costa
Logistic (Core)
73.2%
26.8%
Alessandro Costa
CatBoost
69.1%
30.9%
Alessandro Costa
Ensemble
62.8%
37.2%
Alessandro Costa
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
54%
Decision
29%
KO / TKO
18%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 46%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Alessandro Costa
Cody Durden
10%
10%
10%
7%
7%
5%
5%
4%
4%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
← pushes toward Alessandro Costa
pushes toward Cody Durden →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Alessandro Costa
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
SUB
W
KO
W
KO
L
KO
W
KO
Height:
163 cm
Weight:
125 lbs
Reach:
170 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Cody Durden
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
SUB
W
DEC
L
DEC
L
SUB
L
KO
Height:
170 cm
Weight:
125 lbs
Reach:
170 cm
Stance:
Southpaw