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Alessandro Costa
"Nono"
14-5-0
VS
2026-07-11
UFC 329
Flyweight
Cody Durden
"Custom Made"
17-9-1
LOGISTIC (CORE) PREDICTION
Alessandro Costa 'Nono'
73.2% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
64.9% 35.1%
Alessandro Costa
LightGBM
64.7% 35.3%
Alessandro Costa
Logistic (Core) currently viewing
73.2% 26.8%
Alessandro Costa
CatBoost
69.1% 30.9%
Alessandro Costa
Ensemble
62.8% 37.2%
Alessandro Costa
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
54%
Decision
29%
KO / TKO
18%
Submission
Decision53.5%
KO / TKO28.8%
Submission17.7%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 150.3%
Round 234.4%
Round 3+15.3%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 46% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Alessandro Costa
Cody Durden
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Alessandro Costa
8%
Age
Cody Durden
8%
Elo rating edge
Matchup
8%
Net striking dominance
Matchup
7%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup
6%
Last 2 avg fight time
Alessandro Costa
5%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup
5%
Southpaw stance edge
Matchup
4%
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup
4%
Age
Alessandro Costa
4%
Finishing threat edge
Matchup
3%
Last 2 avg fight time
Cody Durden
3%
Distance strike defense
Cody Durden
3%
Common-opponent edge
Matchup
3%
← pushes toward Alessandro Costa pushes toward Cody Durden →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Alessandro Costa

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W SUB
W KO
W KO
L KO
W KO
Height: 163 cm
Weight: 125 lbs
Reach: 170 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Cody Durden

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L SUB
W DEC
L DEC
L SUB
L KO
Height: 170 cm
Weight: 125 lbs
Reach: 170 cm
Stance: Southpaw