Giga Chikadze
"Ninja"
15-5-0
VS
2026-09-19
UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2
Featherweight
Joanderson Brito
"Tubarao"
17-5-1
RECENCY-HEAVY · ENSEMBLE PREDICTION
Joanderson Brito 'Tubarao'
61.6% CONFIDENCE
ACTUAL RESULT — MODEL WAS CORRECT
Joanderson Brito 'Tubarao' won
KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:57
How It Ends
57%
Decision
26%
KO / TKO
17%
Submission
Decision57.1%
KO / TKO25.7%
Submission17.2%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 147.1%
Round 235.8%
Round 3+17.1%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 43% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Giga Chikadze
Joanderson Brito
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup
15%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Joanderson Brito
10%
Age
Giga Chikadze
9%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Giga Chikadze
8%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup
6%
Round 1 strike output
Joanderson Brito
5%
Avg takedowns attempted
Joanderson Brito
5%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Giga Chikadze
3%
Head absorption rate
Giga Chikadze
2%
Distance strike defense
Giga Chikadze
2%
Strikes absorbed/min
Joanderson Brito
2%
Fights per year
Giga Chikadze
2%
Sub attempts/fight
Giga Chikadze
2%
← pushes toward Giga Chikadze pushes toward Joanderson Brito →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Giga Chikadze

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L KO
L KO
L DEC
L DEC
W DEC
Height: 183 cm
Weight: 145 lbs
Reach: 188 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Joanderson Brito

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
W SUB
W DEC
L DEC
L DEC
Height: 173 cm
Weight: 145 lbs
Reach: 183 cm
Stance: Orthodox